NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6194112459ff396a13661feb4e6c136697c7d050c6713920663b1faa3b9071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 60c | 3,856$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nets | 40c | 3,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 40c | 2,533$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hornets | 60c | 1,680$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Nets | 42c | 275$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets | 58c | 233.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…85fabacked Hornets | 60c | 190.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Hornets | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Hornets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…198abacked Hornets | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…bf6dbacked Hornets | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…8c1cbacked Nets | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…b8f4backed Hornets | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nets | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Hornets | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…f340backed Hornets | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Hornets | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…37cbbacked Nets | 42c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Nets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…8409backed Hornets | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…b1b2backed Hornets | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bd…8b0ebacked Hornets | 60c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)this page
- Nets vs. HornetsHornets won
- Nets vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nets vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nets vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.