Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a62db31586335d50bd2eeb93cd0af7735e78ecd543b11f8b77d66f40cdbced1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 8,002$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.27 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 2,384$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.42 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yakutou Brothers | 29c | 1,650$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.05 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…1fdbbacked Yakutou Brothers | 4c | 1,443$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Heroic | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Heroic | 70c | 1,339$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.51 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 1,068$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.94 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yakutou Brothers | 18c | 824.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Heroic | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 233.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic | 66c | 228$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2842…e81bbacked Yakutou Brothers | 10c | 196.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Heroic | 78c | 185.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…d596backed Yakutou Brothers | 34c | 176.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 65c | 168$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Heroic | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Heroic | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…6a11backed Heroic | 71c | 75.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Heroic | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Yakutou Brothers | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Heroic | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)Heroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.