Us Politics · resolved market
Trump's July 11 sentencing pushed back?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a65461275604e537ee2c3fe8a37342e68bf963616f69c4f02f55e6cca17b425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 15c | 5,148$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.35 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 25c | 2,607$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.7 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1279…7731backed No | 3c | 2,533$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 20c | 811.07$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 73c | 370$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.1 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 33c | 369.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.91 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 76c | 336.68$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 73c | 109.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5138backed Yes | 48c | 73.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 63c | 67.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…f471backed Yes | 33c | 60.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…1b84backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…633bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a2…90ecbacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…8c8cbacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.