Champions League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a66eeb7beb7c8bb612a0c74c502aaa8dc3d613d272f91fc737435818a9d0a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 1,171$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.02 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 41c | 397.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.6 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 35c | 390$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked No | 47c | 214.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Yes | 60c | 202.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 24c | 171.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 60c | 167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 43c | 165.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 53c | 164.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 136.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…a631backed Yes | 79c | 110.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 55c | 109.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed No | 44c | 96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 52c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 74c | 57.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 33c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.