Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007d9b31de0cd2bec5df266a068d917a35a5c588206fcec17240dacdc03767c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenof Manchester City FC, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 53c | 3,962$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Manchester City FC | 47c | 3,769$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.34 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 3,316$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.46 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 50c | 2,923$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.25 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 51c | 1,816$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.08 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 46c | 1,618$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.06 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 1,320$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.62 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Manchester City FC | 49c | 1,313$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 1,024$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.07 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 41c | 894.16$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.63 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 883.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 55cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Manchester City FC | 54c | 618.13$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.97 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 575.12$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Manchester City FC | 12c | 493.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Manchester City FC | 50c | 416$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f10…8ac6backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…621cbacked Manchester City FC | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Manchester City FC | 61c | 350$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 39c | 250$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 42c | 237.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Manchester City FC | 58c | 207.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Manchester City FC | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 197.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…8aaebacked Manchester City FC | 59c | 154.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Manchester City FC | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Manchester City FC | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 44c | 127$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Manchester City FC | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f8…1afcbacked Manchester City FC | 49c | 101.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Manchester City FC | 58c | 88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6e0cbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Manchester City FC | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…586bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…69b8backed Manchester City FC | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 75.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 70.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…7d56backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Manchester City FC | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Manchester City FC | 49c | 47.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Manchester City FC | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…af5dbacked Manchester City FC | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…c95cbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed Manchester City FC | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed Manchester City FC | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…4850backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 32.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…d34bbacked Manchester City FC | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Manchester City FC | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…c06cbacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Manchester City FC | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 26.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…a082backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 41c | 25.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…4e44backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 54c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…0f34backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 45c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…1ebabacked Manchester City FC | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dce…5e09backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Manchester City FC | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.