NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6d2925d3a3922268a49d104a131e0f2a699837df3452140cc00c5da45f0268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 52c | 26,019$13,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,489.32 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 15,448$7,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,412.54 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 7,966$3,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 54c | 1,380$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.48 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 972.99$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.14 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 927.18$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.61 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 45c | 885.97$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.69 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 46c | 771.09$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.7 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 747.85$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 675$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.55 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 53c | 650$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 48c | 575$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 49c | 250.51$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 54c | 194$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…d158backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 50c | 174.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 160.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 149.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Over | 53c | 146.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 54c | 138.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…e3f7backed Over | 55c | 90.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 53c | 65.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 51c | 38.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Over | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…ac33backed Over | 54c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…1f7abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 40.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. TitansSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 41.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Titans won
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)Titans won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Titans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.