NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7400f70f46cc851c288e97ed136f3f7f103af407ad14b49c2d4436309eb58a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 24,098$11,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,327.64 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 15,870$7,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,915.19 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 11,774$6,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,007.31 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 7,700$3,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,775 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,301$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.51 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 750$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 49c | 614.29$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 392$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 45c | 144.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 119.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 78.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…2fdbbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)Seahawks won
- Seahawks vs. TitansSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 39.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 40.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Titans: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)Titans won
- Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)Titans won
- Spread: Seahawks (-13.5)Titans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.