TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Wyoming Cowboys (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Wyoming Cowboysof Wyoming Cowboys, Fresno State Bulldogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,358 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Wyoming Cowboys52c59,254$30,997 inWon+$28,257.095347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c32,500$15,450 inLost-$15,45090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c24,423$11,694 inLost-$11,693.8530249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c7,521$3,604 inLost-$3,603.5612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Wyoming Cowboys51c4,547$2,312 inWon+$2,234.1710648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Wyoming Cowboys52c2,450$1,268 inWon+$1,182.59250%46 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs49c2,211$1,084 inLost-$1,083.5674152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Wyoming Cowboys51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$98048855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Wyoming Cowboys54c1,856$1,000 inWon+$855.5357248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c918.37$450 inLost-$45079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Fresno State Bulldogs48c616.5$296 inLost-$295.926642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fresno State Bulldogs47c571$268 inLost-$268.375,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c509.73$245 inLost-$244.675,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c391.84$192 inLost-$19225049.2%123 W · 127 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Wyoming Cowboys52c323.37$168 inWon+$155.2215947.2%75 W · 84 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs47c229$108 inLost-$108.312,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Fresno State Bulldogs50c200$100 inLost-$1001,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Fresno State Bulldogs48c196.96$95 inLost-$94.541,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c2…6d84backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c140.9$69 inLost-$69.241855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Fresno State Bulldogs48c120$58 inLost-$57.930746.3%142 W · 165 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs49c100$49 inLost-$4910652.8%56 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Fresno State Bulldogs47c100$47 inLost-$46.585248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Fresno State Bulldogs49c100$49 inLost-$4929442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fresno State Bulldogs47c100$47 inLost-$4793941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Wyoming Cowboys55c91.01$50 inWon+$41.0123054.3%125 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Wyoming Cowboys52c71$37 inWon+$33.758547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked Wyoming Cowboys52c69.41$36 inWon+$33.324247.6%20 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Wyoming Cowboys51c49.23$25 inWon+$24.129945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Fresno State Bulldogs47c48.36$23 inLost-$22.731,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Fresno State Bulldogs48c41.68$20 inLost-$20.011,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Fresno State Bulldogs50c40$20 inLost-$2016551.5%85 W · 80 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Wyoming Cowboys51c39.12$20 inWon+$19.1724857.3%142 W · 106 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c30$14 inLost-$14.434952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c26.72$13 inLost-$12.8513561.5%83 W · 52 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Fresno State Bulldogs48c22.2$11 inLost-$10.5526550.6%134 W · 131 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.