NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad78f9ead6106d42190b24a9c081a1f7a496b833bfc2ea877220c257a75434c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc6…0b2dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,164$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.49 | 313 | 47%147 W · 166 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 16c | 899$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…efecbacked Yes | 14c | 728.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…f161backed Yes | 18c | 559.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 14c | 469.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 15c | 457.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…be43backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 18c | 158.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 142.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…4931backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0c…c695backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?this page
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?No won
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.