NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4849ee1978d9697992da8b3399b863104ea9b7d3ebade93e813afca588749bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 66c | 8,978$5,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,912.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…0b2dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,699$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 36c | 2,412$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.13 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 76c | 1,099$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 80c | 644$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 73c | 551.65$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…49aebacked Yes | 22c | 516.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 34c | 448.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 35c | 444$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.82 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 26c | 403.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…0b67backed Yes | 34c | 322$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…b661backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 20c | 222$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a2…5345backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…7351backed Yes | 71c | 74.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…b2a7backed Yes | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…ee8fbacked Yes | 70c | 55.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…f8efbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb538…827fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…971fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8294…003bbacked Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…d678backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…af1dbacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…93febacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?this page
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?No won
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?No won
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.