NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58869505d8daf39296c96bb94609c84ef94cd60cc6c3ffc860439c124d0dfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 25c | 6,829$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.72 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 14c | 5,335$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 52c | 4,026$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.45 | 313 | 47%147 W · 166 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…0b2dbacked Yes | 25c | 3,956$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…c024backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 50c | 2,346$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 16c | 2,345$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.2 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed No | 79c | 1,279$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…ec26backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…aa6ebacked Yes | 18c | 900$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…0540backed Yes | 51c | 888$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…0b67backed Yes | 18c | 796.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 10c | 755$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…4eb8backed Yes | 24c | 340$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 49c | 258.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 26c | 178.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 261 | 24.1%63 W · 198 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…bf56backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…dbacbacked Yes | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…dcb3backed Yes | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…c715backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?this page
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?No won
- Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?No won
- Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.