TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Dodgers21c2,128$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1336440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants51c1,428$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.661,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants80c956.21$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.249,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants79c541.3$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.676,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Los Angeles Dodgers49c495.1$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.881,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Giants51c469.39$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers47c350.62$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.791,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Los Angeles Dodgers49c316.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.148150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers49c296.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4112845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants52c274.76$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.792,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed San Francisco Giants75c266.52$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9588053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9660350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed Los Angeles Dodgers45c199.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.995429.6%16 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Los Angeles Dodgers48c187.24$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.822,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked San Francisco Giants52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6565248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles Dodgers25c179.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9599624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Los Angeles Dodgers49c138.49$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8648651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants79c130.14$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.332,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd66…9dc0backed Los Angeles Dodgers48c126.55$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Los Angeles Dodgers48c121.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5249649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked San Francisco Giants73c102.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8682551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Los Angeles Dodgers24c93.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2266749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2513…91fbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers48c76.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.547248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed San Francisco Giants51c74.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.741,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Los Angeles Dodgers48c60.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1820044.5%89 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Los Angeles Dodgers48c60.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0646557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Los Angeles Dodgers19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.429047.6%138 W · 152 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed San Francisco Giants51c56.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.618553.5%99 W · 86 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants79c54.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.365,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants52c50.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2472648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers49c49.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed San Francisco Giants52c46.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4115858.2%92 W · 66 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants55c45.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.411,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked San Francisco Giants55c40.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants51c39.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.552,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants52c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9345952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed San Francisco Giants55c35.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.925442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked San Francisco Giants55c35.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9218444%81 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants59c25.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.426,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d8…85f8backed San Francisco Giants52c22.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.823644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers48c21.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.521,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046b…1868backed San Francisco Giants52c19.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.