MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae6b8df561c6dccddf6283ed060232a8e8bcb42959d7e54b0482f945683ffc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 2,128$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.13 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 1,428$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.66 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 956.21$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 541.3$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 495.1$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 469.39$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 350.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 316.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 296.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 274.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 266.52$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 199.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 187.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 25c | 179.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 138.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 130.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd66…9dc0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 126.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 121.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Francisco Giants | 73c | 102.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 24c | 93.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 76.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 74.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 60.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 56.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 54.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 50.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 49.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 45.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 40.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 39.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046b…1868backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.