MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56543ebe5ced3a08aa3c0bff79bf0194aa23f6069367ccebf699370ca8ccc078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 1,242$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.64 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 431.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 337.6$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 337.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 310.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 309$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 181$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 112.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 57.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 37.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 29.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.