Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b021476ce6bee18a9e8d33b662d226ee0c3ea371faa9915f43f43aedede3881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,061$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 63c | 704.28$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.28 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 458.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 233.74$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 60c | 220$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 72c | 181$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 180.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 60c | 167.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 128.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 115.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 106.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 41c | 100.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 90.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 89.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…422ebacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 56c | 71.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 67.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 62.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 59.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…7cb4backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 53.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…7d1abacked Yes | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 46c | 50.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 51c | 50.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ad0dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 26c | 49.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 49.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…fceabacked Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 33c | 45.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdff…b57fbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 42.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 42.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 41c | 42.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f98…7717backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 58c | 38.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 34.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 33.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 68c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 65c | 26.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 58c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 78c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 62c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 80°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.