Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b1c5a68d2ae4b4fff2832779494a31e70aea6e04018382fcb4968ad424ed185
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 21c | 225.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 74c | 142.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 15c | 99.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 92.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 81.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 42c | 75.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 71c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 31c | 62.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 59.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 74c | 53.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 48c | 53.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 23c | 50.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 50c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 28c | 41.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 46c | 39.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 74c | 30.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 30.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 61c | 27.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 46c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 51c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 74c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 80c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.