Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b36acc07eb3b4f5b5d11a52e6ebdb10ce2dee307086ec6658ece6ddc5c1374c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 470.43$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 49c | 470.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.48 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…f168backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 317.08$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 306.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 289.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 257.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 55c | 185$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 169.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 147.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 34c | 145.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 47c | 143.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 120.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 63c | 114.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 113.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 100.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 23c | 95.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 91.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 24c | 91.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 33c | 79.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 78.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 73.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 29c | 69.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 30c | 67.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 31c | 66.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 60.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…1799backed Yes | 25c | 60.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 24c | 58.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 78c | 54.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 24c | 54.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked No | 80c | 52.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 32c | 43.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 42.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 41.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 40.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 40.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 67c | 38.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 38.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 32.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 80c | 31.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 80c | 28.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 28.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 20.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 77c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 77c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.