Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83649bfea28795a405ad6ab3bb2542f5f382f9865c139b9886ce3773ee090833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 470.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 58c | 313.24$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 298.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 229.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.33 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 53c | 228.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 219.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 207.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 56c | 188.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 183.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 181.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 7c | 177.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 55c | 170.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 166.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 61c | 162.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 154.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 154.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 51c | 131.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 32c | 125.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 120.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 79c | 100.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 99.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 98.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 48c | 89.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 19c | 84.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 82.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 82.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 72.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 48c | 68.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 62.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 44c | 58.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 56.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 54.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 47c | 53.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 65c | 51.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed Yes | 58c | 49.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 47.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 46c | 43.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 49c | 40.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 40.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 40.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 66c | 38.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 50c | 34.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 39c | 33.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 55c | 32.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 32.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 32.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 36c | 28.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 50c | 28.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 69c | 26.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 44c | 24.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 45c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 47c | 21.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 68c | 20.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6414…8590backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 63c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 18.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 16.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.