Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b455429c58e9622af46d69423b43ecfe612c388d3f00806396f5fd386f6e107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 599.6$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 34c | 378$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 219.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 217$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 210.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 190.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 24c | 182.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 25c | 176.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 148.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 66c | 129.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 194 | 39.7%77 W · 117 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 67c | 119.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 361 | 23.8%86 W · 275 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 114.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 71c | 112.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 77c | 104.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 831 | 42.6%354 W · 477 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 73.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 22c | 68.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 77c | 64.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 67c | 60.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 59.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 22c | 57.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 234 | 46.6%109 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 54.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 459 | 59.5%273 W · 186 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 40.5%194 W · 285 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 664 | 43.5%289 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…4a36backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 62c | 39.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 574 | 53.5%307 W · 267 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 341 | 76.5%261 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 68c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 242 | 70.2%170 W · 72 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.