Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e241d0722fe15fadf11a3d02431d8d3fb1283aa993adc5404ab3316b2d7537d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 932.79$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 572.8$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 61c | 454.48$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.2 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 294.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.09 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 257.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 191.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 181.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 160.06$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 121.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 118.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 115.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 107.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 98.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 18c | 98.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 95.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 86.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 24c | 84.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 74.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 32c | 71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 62c | 70.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 70.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 21c | 64.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 50.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 48.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 45.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 44.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 49c | 42.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 37c | 40.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 70c | 40.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 53c | 38.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 39c | 35.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 32.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 75c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 29.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 72c | 26.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 40c | 26.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed No | 70c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 18.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 77c | 16.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 16.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.