Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009ebf3638d9464cace799796cf82f78af9fa0f8995f6e8ad87c512c9dc82c05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 1,273$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 535$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 223.81$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 43c | 210$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 207.6$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 27c | 197.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 33c | 162.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 66c | 150.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 148.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…b14abacked Yes | 35c | 140.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 137.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 137.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 131.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 128.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 121.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 62c | 118.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 103.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 99.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 30c | 80.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 62c | 80.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 74c | 77.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 77.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 75.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 34c | 73.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 27c | 73.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 65.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 29c | 64.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 60.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 58.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…fdb6backed Yes | 37c | 57.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 57.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 34c | 50.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 49.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 47.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 65c | 44.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 29c | 43.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 41.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 37.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 36c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 34c | 35.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed No | 80c | 35.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 34.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 34.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 63c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 56c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked No | 69c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 24.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 64c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 65c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 56c | 19.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…a117backed No | 65c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.