Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4e0f0c5d10d434127a9fcd4256707b13863feac040b32755ba3b9372872120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 454.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 76c | 262.74$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 240.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 175.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 151.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 148.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 145.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 134.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 53c | 132.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 129.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…b48fbacked Yes | 50c | 115.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 33c | 100.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 98.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 28c | 67.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 77c | 63.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 65c | 62.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 38c | 61.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 44c | 55.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 52.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 72c | 52.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 67c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 69c | 33.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 68c | 33.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 31.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 24.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 79c | 19.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…9baabacked No | 79c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…6c58backed No | 58c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…7b70backed No | 73c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.