Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f08194c3aff36e5a3c27fda38b77cb6b95c58c292662e5daef2821768217fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 29c | 373.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 318.61$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 280.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 28c | 276.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 242.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 239.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 58c | 209.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 185.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 182.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 63c | 160.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…6c30backed No | 15c | 137.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 43c | 135.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 127.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 106.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 61c | 104.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 42c | 101.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 56c | 96.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 95.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 86.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 46c | 76.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 75.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 71.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 44c | 64.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 50c | 62.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 53.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 53.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 49.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 50c | 48.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 48.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 47c | 46.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 49c | 38.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 49c | 38.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 61c | 37.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 35.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 50c | 35.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 33.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 33c | 32.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 31.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 54c | 30.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 52c | 28.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…1284backed Yes | 49c | 28.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 49c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 57c | 20.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.