Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6950e345e5a704b25fdb2759ba7a1e9f59ce79e693486d18177b68398fa1c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 24c | 6,604$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,029.89 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 53c | 4,587$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.5 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 12c | 4,281$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780.81 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 14c | 3,120$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Down | 30c | 2,090$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.49 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 27c | 1,913$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.71 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 1c | 934.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 18c | 871.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.9 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 8c | 822.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 14c | 601.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.31 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 21c | 515.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.27 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Down | 17c | 504.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.5 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 61c | 400$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 20c | 340.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.67 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Up | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 13c | 275$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.09 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Down | 23c | 255$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 33c | 223.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.51 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Down | 14c | 156.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Down | 35c | 116.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 18c | 103.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 46c | 90.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Down | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d9…36c3backed Up | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Down | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Up | 74c | 41.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Down | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…4bd1backed Up | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Up | 28c | 39.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…eeb6backed Down | 35c | 31.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Up | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Down | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Down | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Up | 41c | 27.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Down | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…1373backed Up | 62c | 21.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.