Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3baf3477fefc286811a97477713c7f32a24e36de8dd330d995c11873cd9c1abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 25c | 980.35$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.18 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 10c | 702.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 583.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 245$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 223.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 198.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 35c | 186.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 164.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 139$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 134.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 130.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 103.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes | 22c | 90.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 69.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 43c | 65.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 58.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 50.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 48.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 26c | 44.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 77c | 34.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 79c | 33.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 26.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 65c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 21.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 58c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 73c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.