TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdadb…1870backed Yes21c1,303$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.3158922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No79c500.01$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.1797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c401.11$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No11c395.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0288028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No79c382.16$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.917252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes47c283.24$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.451,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes22c253.22$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5131936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes31c240.35$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes22c208.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.214,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes18c174.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.551,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes22c150$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked No7c147.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7822932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…a32abacked Yes54c144.78$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3221633.8%73 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes79c144.17$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8440461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c141.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c139$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.685,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No72c138.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No77c134.49$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c130.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.317,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes28c121.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.722,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c114$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.454,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes25c112.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.661,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes26c110$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.216937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c105.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c92$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.763,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes20c85.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes69c76.05$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.515350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No71c75.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9140352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes26c74.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5575546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Yes28c71.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes24c70.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1914832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No76c66.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8473…5511backed Yes23c64.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.949128.6%26 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes79c60.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.763542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed No80c58.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.564961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c57.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.344,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No80c56.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.263357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f70…891dbacked Yes19c56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.346634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No79c56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.242,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes23c55.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.638930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No76c53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2833350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c50.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.324,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b17…ab15backed No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes73c48.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.846,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes66c47.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.921,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes26c47.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9723845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c44.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.345,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes26c41.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.386358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.25863.8%37 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes40c39.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.797953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07de…d541backed No47c39.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes63c39.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.422,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1441…0b51backed Yes28c36.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes29c35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.859741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes55c34.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7753258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f83…9847backed Yes36c30.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.525438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes40c29.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.896141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c28.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.484,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c26.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.712,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No80c23.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5213852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes77c21.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.086931.9%22 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes60c19.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.93336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No79c18.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.533,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No75c16.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.252,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes68c15.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.