Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb2c3f9d1362f5ce5179fe982b6881af4f31b1f395d319d1840c989e57be78f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 397.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 372.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 258.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 209.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 15c | 188.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 149.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 7c | 142.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 76c | 139.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed Yes | 32c | 132.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 25c | 126.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 114.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 112.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 106.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 92.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 86.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 83.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 36c | 65.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 38c | 65.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…bd7cbacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 37c | 52.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 23c | 51.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 69c | 45.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 40.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 62c | 38.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 51c | 29.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed Yes | 46c | 28.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 70c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.