Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860ed13e306500250573882d3aa6e22eda1e7269c4a3b14e89df6898cc965627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 7c | 724.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.66 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 385.35$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 369.27$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 316.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 297.65$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 253.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 242.33$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 242.17$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 30c | 240.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 42c | 226.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 20c | 222.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 179.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 15c | 166.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 159.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 158.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 36c | 157.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 8c | 153.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 56c | 152$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 145.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d4a6backed Yes | 36c | 139.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 66c | 126.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 45c | 110.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 108.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 108.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 42c | 104.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 46c | 87.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 40c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 25c | 76.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 41c | 73.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 71.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed Yes | 45c | 69.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 68.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 68.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 64.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 29c | 63.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 60.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 55.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 34c | 52.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 51.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 51.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 48.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 42.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 42.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 61c | 40.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 39.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 37.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 28c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 37.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 35.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 42c | 32.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 31.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 31.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 29.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 59c | 24.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 24.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 23.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 73c | 23.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…8990backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +82%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 59c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 73c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.