Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b19ea0fd73f61edb12f544b1f7bfdf8dd2c79864e9ecaae9e5d274acf40a003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d5b…26d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,279$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 54c | 557.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 290.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 10c | 243$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 228.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 223.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 203.04$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 201.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 184.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 161.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…2100backed Yes | 29c | 157.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 69c | 145.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 54c | 129.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 121.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 117.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 31c | 107.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 105.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 103$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 88.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 85.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 74.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 72.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 79c | 67.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 24c | 65.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…6384backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 51.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 45c | 51.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 50.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 39c | 45.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 39.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 42c | 35.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 46c | 35.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 79c | 31.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 75c | 29.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 60c | 28.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 42c | 27.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 66c | 26.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 77c | 25.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 25.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 50c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 23.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…bd7cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d4a6backed Yes | 59c | 18.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 79c | 17.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…42f8backed Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.