South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc10b34f3141c85827dcbe095c78fcb27bf90d91aa761e325348f7f62bd4b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 3,388$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.15 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 1,935$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.69 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes | 29c | 1,903$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 1,475$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.02 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 1,109$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 947$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.37 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 2c | 578$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…89a7backed Yes | 29c | 324.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…88bdbacked Yes | 29c | 324.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.14 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 73c | 274.93$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 268.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 26c | 171.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 161.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 72c | 127.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 107.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 101.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…917ebacked Yes | 80c | 84.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked Yes | 73c | 83.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 67c | 46.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 71c | 44.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc0…5b3bbacked Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 30c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 36.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.