Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd4a97797eff38a34fc3947254d8a0c359a20fdf913e6d2c42a3e0116a9a50e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 462.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 418.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 215.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 193.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 165.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 76c | 158.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 136.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 8c | 134.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 112.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 37c | 108.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 93.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 62c | 79.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 74.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 56c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 55.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 55.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 47.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 42c | 42.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 41.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 80c | 39.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 37.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 35.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 46c | 33.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 27.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 55c | 26.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 25.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 21.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.