Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2e9ee506e34ce03ac002e6de737d0903651200ec4fc7bcdfb899484febb32f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 1,200$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.61 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 783.19$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 451.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 441.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 401$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.46 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 384.32$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 340.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 315$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 285.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 37c | 285$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 257.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 229.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 193.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 151.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 48c | 145.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 53c | 137.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 120.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 106.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 100.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 54c | 95.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 53c | 93.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 82.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 52c | 79.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 56c | 79.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 19c | 74.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 43c | 74.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 67.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 65.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 60.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 54c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 57.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 52.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 52c | 45.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 42.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 28c | 40.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 80c | 37.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 36.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 39c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 51c | 31.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 47c | 28.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 27.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 26.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 54c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 76c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.