Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3befcf7ffda0c3c86fb65c87d4f3fe126379cd3e29c584e60012916cc072df2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fa1…864bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,295$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…1e17backed Yes | 35c | 1,264$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 937.84$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 58c | 453.64$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.33 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 334.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 311.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 242$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 190$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 178.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 132.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 121.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 120.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 108.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 15c | 93.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 83.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 70.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 17c | 70.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 20c | 61.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 58.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…a35ebacked No | 66c | 54.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 66c | 52.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 52.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 23c | 52.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 36c | 51.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 48.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 47.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 39.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 35.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 31.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 64c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked No | 67c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…e141backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…a0b1backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 74c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.