Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c278a372438b3663f43fd6ab8292454778c3b65a0948503fa1af76695c3435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 1,221$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.56 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 43c | 599.66$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 190 | 32.1%61 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 39c | 594.65$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.54 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 459.84$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.87 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 56c | 446.73$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.35 | 377 | 56.2%212 W · 165 L | +30.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 324$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 290.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 289.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.34 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…62ebbacked No | 39c | 287$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 241.35$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 48c | 217.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 210.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 197.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 569 | 43.4%247 W · 322 L | -32.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 172.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 172$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 159.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 55c | 136$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 78c | 127.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 59 | 84.7%50 W · 9 L | +11.2wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 126.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 124.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 121.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 112.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 108.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 453 | 46.4%210 W · 243 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 57c | 95.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 43c | 95.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 56c | 89.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 39.7%81 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 80.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 26c | 67.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 62.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 53.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 52.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 876 | 50.2%440 W · 436 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 43c | 47.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 47.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 32c | 40.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 40c | 38.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 72c | 37.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 69c | 36.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 429 | 53.4%229 W · 200 L | +26.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 32.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 39c | 30.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 51c | 27.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 67c | 25.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 348 | 67.8%236 W · 112 L | +26.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 21.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 62c | 19.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 56c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 60c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.