Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc6b8981e61b1faee195e45660e7e01228dd1617e4995ac6f5a659715393a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 1,719$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 1,120$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 29c | 639.02$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 512.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 440.66$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 422.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 303.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 288.54$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 25c | 257.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 197.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 171.46$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 157.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 12c | 143.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 136$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 134.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 132$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 63c | 115.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 105.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 73c | 102.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 100.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 99.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 45c | 95.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 78.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 77.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 72.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 67.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 33c | 65.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 58.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 74c | 51.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 50.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 46.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 44.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…8caabacked No | 68c | 41.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 50c | 36.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 35.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 33.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 28.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…68cbbacked No | 67c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 61c | 21.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 21.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…5904backed No | 67c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.