Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bf733c348fcff88cffbd888ce30db03065e17eac768bb64cc966cb821c0da84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio State Buckeyesof Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 58c | 10,607$6,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,436.91 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 9,082$4,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,067.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 52c | 1,898$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.01 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 44c | 1,270$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.66 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 20c | 877.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 46c | 484.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.36 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Michigan Wolverines | 44c | 405$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 56c | 351.26$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 289.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Michigan Wolverines | 42c | 273.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 223.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…9787backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 54c | 214.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Michigan Wolverines | 44c | 200.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 196.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 126.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 123.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 56c | 115.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 38c | 100.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 58c | 85.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Michigan Wolverines | 44c | 78.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Michigan Wolverines | 44c | 66.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 60.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 58.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 55.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 53.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…954ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 56c | 52.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…ffb8backed Ohio State Buckeyes | 55c | 43.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Michigan Wolverines | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Michigan Wolverines | 40c | 34.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…d03abacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 32.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 31.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Ohio State Buckeyes | 53c | 22.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Michigan Wolverines | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-13.5)this page
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 152.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 153.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 154.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 155.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 156.5Under won
- Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)Ohio State Buckeyes won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)Ohio State Buckeyes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.