TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ohio State Buckeyesof Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,468 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Ohio State Buckeyes58c10,607$6,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,436.9133438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines45c9,082$4,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,067.9512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes52c1,898$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.0157248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan Wolverines44c1,270$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.662,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Michigan Wolverines20c877.88$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.583737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines46c484.78$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.365,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Michigan Wolverines44c405$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.291848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Ohio State Buckeyes56c351.26$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9833855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Michigan Wolverines47c289.66$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.083,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Michigan Wolverines42c273.15$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.81,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Michigan Wolverines49c223.76$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5529337.2%109 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc20a…9787backed Ohio State Buckeyes54c214.45$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.651450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Michigan Wolverines44c200.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2582846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Michigan Wolverines43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8693941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Michigan Wolverines48c196.64$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4660954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Michigan Wolverines49c126.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1772248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Michigan Wolverines48c123.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.069341.9%39 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes56c115.07$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6310150.5%51 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan Wolverines45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ohio State Buckeyes38c100.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1560551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Ohio State Buckeyes58c85.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.98543.5%37 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Michigan Wolverines44c78.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6527650.7%140 W · 136 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Michigan Wolverines44c66.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.316650%83 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan Wolverines49c60.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7414051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Michigan Wolverines47c58.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4721152.1%110 W · 101 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ba…8497backed Michigan Wolverines45c55.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.786048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines47c53.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d94…954ebacked Ohio State Buckeyes56c52.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.172564%16 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Ohio State Buckeyes55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2541554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Michigan Wolverines45c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4630054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc269…ffb8backed Ohio State Buckeyes55c43.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.471250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Michigan Wolverines31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44949%24 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Michigan Wolverines40c34.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.811,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b2…d03abacked Michigan Wolverines49c32.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Michigan Wolverines51c31.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9632246.6%150 W · 172 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Ohio State Buckeyes53c22.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7248855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Michigan Wolverines44c22.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9037…0386backed Michigan Wolverines51c21.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.