Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Fabian Marozsan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bf9c84569909d85cce2ea02dc391e4dd28256d4e20b9c7e485909945ecdd195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marozsanof Nakashima, Marozsan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Nakashima | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marozsan | 46c | 7,093$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.4 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Marozsan | 39c | 4,512$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.82 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Nakashima | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nakashima | 4c | 1,055$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nakashima | 61c | 779.49$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.49 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…0b43backed Marozsan | 39c | 779.49$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Marozsan | 54c | 555.76$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.11 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Nakashima | 64c | 395.31$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Nakashima | 62c | 253.75$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Marozsan | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Marozsan | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Marozsan | 40c | 205$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marozsan | 36c | 194.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nakashima | 29c | 158.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nakashima | 64c | 157.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Nakashima | 64c | 156.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Marozsan | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nakashima | 39c | 117$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Nakashima | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Marozsan | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Marozsan | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Marozsan | 65c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Marozsan | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Nakashima | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Marozsan | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Nakashima | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Marozsan | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Marozsan | 48c | 48.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Nakashima | 62c | 37.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Marozsan | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Nakashima | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Nakashima | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Marozsan | 42c | 25.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Marozsan | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.