Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0637aa0ede3ceea52d0c4468694b3ee3bf6fba1a882f4143705827cde4f383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 3,975$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.76 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 2,918$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.9 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 27c | 660.11$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 609.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.64 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 393.74$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…f3f0backed Yes | 24c | 283$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 75c | 283$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 51c | 191.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd945…fbd1backed Yes | 38c | 154.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 110.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 102.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 31c | 97.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 29c | 93.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 74.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 60c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 62.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Yes | 47c | 53.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 53c | 47.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 25c | 46.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 36c | 45.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked No | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 40.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae44…03b4backed No | 55c | 40.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 80c | 37.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 37c | 36.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 25.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 80c | 23.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 80c | 23.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 80c | 23.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 80c | 23.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 61c | 23.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 19.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.