Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c2dd75ecc1d2a2b59643456816d54e25fb4f485c8375a4e85db1bdc9864c383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 78c | 5,045$3,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,935.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,863$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 47c | 1,247$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.87 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,161$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.41 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 989.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 960.13$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 23c | 934.6$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 37c | 850.48$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 619.06$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc601…4120backed Yes | 55c | 612.64$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 579.55$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 40c | 557.38$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…d388backed No | 54c | 548.53$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 58c | 441.31$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.79 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef5…9313backed No | 3c | 390.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 52c | 382.75$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.48 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 75c | 365.28$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…bb82backed No | 60c | 347.79$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…fb87backed Yes | 67c | 297.56$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 292.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 286.42$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 16c | 284.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.72 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 279.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 253.26$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 31c | 237.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 12c | 210$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 194.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 23c | 193.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 192.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 59c | 188.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 15c | 186.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 44c | 184.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 181.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 60c | 169.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed Yes | 47c | 152.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 45c | 145.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 142.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 141.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 48c | 141.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 43c | 127.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 15c | 127.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 125.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 45c | 122.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 121.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 44c | 116.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 50c | 113.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 19c | 112.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 44c | 112.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 111.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed No | 10c | 108.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 107.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 72c | 105.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 62c | 101.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 59c | 99.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 99.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 32c | 91.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 44c | 88.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 43c | 86.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 43c | 86.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed No | 58c | 82.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 44c | 81.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 55c | 77.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 77.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7c…1396backed Yes | 47c | 77.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 27c | 70.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 69.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…bd8cbacked No | 45c | 69.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 51c | 67.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 38c | 66.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 55c | 66.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 37c | 65.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 26c | 65.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 63.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 39c | 62.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 54c | 61.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 59c | 61.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 38c | 61.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 57c | 60.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed93…037cbacked Yes | 45c | 53.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 32c | 52.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 51c | 52.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 34c | 51.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 56c | 50.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 33c | 50.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2989…9869backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 64c | 49.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85e…de9ebacked No | 79c | 49.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed No | 28c | 48.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 58c | 48.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 46.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…1116backed No | 62c | 46.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 66c | 45.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.