Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f14be1d9e911825a9a926ee9a31d189b72c59e7a505efbe854313328bfaeac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 1c | 1,081$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 518.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 469.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 450.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 21c | 433.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 334.08$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 324.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 293$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 284.18$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 209.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 199.52$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes | 27c | 171.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 30c | 163.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 157.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 15c | 148.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 146.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed No | 76c | 143.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 132.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 24c | 132.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 131.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 13c | 129.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 127.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 123.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 118.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 21c | 117.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 117.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 116.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 19c | 115.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 113.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 30c | 113.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 112.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 99.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 98.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 27c | 95.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 95.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 26c | 92.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 89.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 86.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 29c | 85.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 30c | 83.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2584…030abacked Yes | 23c | 80.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 20c | 79.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7c…1396backed Yes | 27c | 76.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 17c | 75.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 21c | 71.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 69.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 28c | 68.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 19c | 65.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 64.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 59.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 75c | 55.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 54.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 72c | 52.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 51.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 26c | 51.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 50.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 50.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 49.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 49.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 71c | 48.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 48.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 75c | 46.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 44.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 29c | 42.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 25c | 42.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 38.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 35c | 37.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 74c | 34.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 68c | 27.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…bc77backed No | 75c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 76c | 22.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 69c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…2f3cbacked No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…0866backed No | 76c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe536…41b6backed No | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.