Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c314cf51e6b30b87512f0f89aee26c1088aa85adcc2d150a4909efca5bb783c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 76c | 5,148$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.62 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 57c | 5,018$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.67 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 34c | 2,288$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.15 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 22c | 2,097$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.34 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Up | 31c | 980.31$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Up | 41c | 927$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 4c | 926.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Up | 36c | 714.09$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.52 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 19c | 606.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…9017backed Up | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af3…2360backed Up | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…2886backed Down | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 61c | 458.49$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec9…50a7backed Up | 7c | 426.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…c54abacked Down | 58c | 392$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Up | 30c | 359.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 59c | 352.04$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.81 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Up | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…3543backed Up | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Down | 48c | 283$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Up | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 38c | 235.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 53c | 203$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 46c | 202.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 52c | 201$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Up | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…b41dbacked Down | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…b157backed Up | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Up | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba9f…017bbacked Down | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 73c | 180$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 52c | 172$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…e528backed Up | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 59c | 116.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Up | 48c | 102.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…b61ebacked Up | 55c | 101.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 63c | 101.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4cc7backed Down | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Down | 44c | 98.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Down | 55c | 97.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…2d08backed Up | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Up | 52c | 83.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…da74backed Down | 44c | 81.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +347%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 38c | 60.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…e55dbacked Up | 53c | 58.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 43c | 58.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 74c | 57.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed Down | 63c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Up | 30c | 53.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Up | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…1c19backed Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Down | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.