Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c3e430ce33ed580380fb226c32b64959fd6563fd3816990136afbae854da68f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 27c | 1,361$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.19 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 739.46$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.95 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 339.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 289.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.28 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 239.54$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 216.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 187.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 17c | 178$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 29c | 175.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 168$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 41c | 140.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…ac29backed No | 61c | 109.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 106.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed No | 69c | 102.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 95.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 88.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed No | 58c | 85.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 82.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 66.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 57c | 61.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 59.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 72c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 55.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 50.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 48.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 35c | 48.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 48.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe568…7280backed No | 66c | 45.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 59c | 44.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 39.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…bee9backed No | 75c | 38.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +252%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 32.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 23.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 45c | 23.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 59c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 63c | 21.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.