Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59a05b8b84ad330ceb6c582fab7e2af0e13420141d7e456c7b7244e6067e1f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 522.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 471.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 214.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 213.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 211.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 182.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 168$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 160.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 140.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 37c | 123.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 36c | 115.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 40c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 98.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 95.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 91.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 88.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 79.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 77.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 75.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 34c | 74.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 67.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 59.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 53.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 53.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 36c | 51.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked No | 80c | 48.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 39c | 44.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 43.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe568…7280backed No | 77c | 38.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 38.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 38.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…f056backed Yes | 39c | 31.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…9118backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 29.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…f388backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed No | 63c | 27.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 23.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…ff9fbacked No | 64c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.