Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c40c3bf6f09c6ba516c6c233143ea05197d2e916ea0d515b4e475ee467c6d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 78c | 445.77$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 174.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 172.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 38c | 158.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 68c | 147.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 144.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 54c | 129.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 125.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 46c | 110.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 109.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 71c | 107$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 65c | 79.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 66.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 62c | 49.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 51c | 43.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 37c | 34.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 47c | 32.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 58c | 26.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 54c | 25.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…a232backed No | 61c | 23.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 53c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d2d1backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.