Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c751a621892f1eeb5b44fc3966347d32e355d401c72720dba38154b0bb702dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 37c | 12,486$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 6,852$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 38c | 1,700$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.99 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 1,204$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Yes | 62c | 1,120$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 29c | 915.8$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.49 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 61c | 688.23$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 38c | 443.96$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 39c | 372$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 38c | 367.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 74c | 187.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 61c | 186.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Yes | 63c | 98.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 38c | 94.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x554c…7156backed Yes | 63c | 79.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 60c | 67.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 37c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…f6a0backed Yes | 59c | 61.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 63c | 47.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Yes | 62c | 44.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed Yes | 63c | 42.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 62c | 26.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…c97dbacked Yes | 63c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.