TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Bad Bunny be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,811 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e04…3fb4backed Yes1c8,823$88 inLost-$88.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…9289backed Yes1c7,061$99 inLost-$98.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908f…35a8backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost-$1260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf51…4b53backed Yes3c3,066$100 inLost-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4028…7de4backed Yes1c3,045$45 inLost-$4570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c2,994$23 inLost-$22.72728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick8cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a30…c6bcbacked Yes1c2,883$18 inLost-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c2,801$12 inLost-$12.031910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238c…cf58backed Yes1c2,703$23 inLost-$22.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes1c2,363$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2b…e7e0backed Yes1c2,040$28 inLost-$28.4450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa609…8141backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187a…87ccbacked Yes1c2,000$14 inLost-$1460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e0…7c68backed Yes6c1,691$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes1c1,610$23 inLost-$23.2812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+124.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…d990backed Yes2c958.03$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c619.86$13 inLost-$12.54210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff1…1ba4backed Yes2c539.91$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c519.04$14 inLost-$14.134629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes3c500$13 inLost-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e0…9412backed Yes2c491.49$11 inLost-$115554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4512…c4a9backed Yes3c416.95$12 inLost-$12.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd432…b158backed Yes4c403.91$16 inLost-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed No75c277.61$209 inWon+$68.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes25c200$50 inLost-$501040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes11c95.04$10 inLost-$10.139116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.