Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7d37f080c6faa1560ae04c8df40014c9a62325987c9df87da1b946ac56b95c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 2,481$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.36 | 202 | 31.7%64 W · 138 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd051…3271backed Yes | 26c | 2,308$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 22c | 1,400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…95a8backed No | 79c | 930$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked Yes | 22c | 680$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b336backed Yes | 21c | 525$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…ff3fbacked Yes | 24c | 525$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3cbebacked No | 78c | 505$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…e9fabacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 24c | 498.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…14cabacked Yes | 21c | 455$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…d991backed Yes | 25c | 455$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…d220backed Yes | 21c | 455$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…f7c2backed Yes | 21c | 450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 77c | 415$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 14c | 290$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…16e0backed No | 78c | 265$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 255.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…bfccbacked No | 79c | 240$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 215.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 18c | 207.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…3bcbbacked Yes | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 15c | 127.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…9504backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…0d0fbacked No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 100.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…402fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 28c | 98.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 13c | 96.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed No | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…865bbacked Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…703dbacked Yes | 21c | 94.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…531cbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…330abacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2a20backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…3418backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 22c | 73.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…959abacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 234 | 30.3%71 W · 163 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…fe4bbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d06…d484backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…bb90backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…7e82backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…e780backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…55afbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in March?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in March?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.