TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,266
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,266 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked No10c4,913$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes59c3,126$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.9612049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes58c2,505$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.6122433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No14c1,936$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.531414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa927…878abacked Yes64c1,900$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes63c1,568$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.8319931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4005022%11 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x050d…e9fabacked No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b27…51f3backed Yes70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0535…fe8abacked Yes70c875$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5739…61eebacked No60c830.93$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes65c749.99$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.51822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf10c…3c85backed Yes70c714.51$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No49c702.97$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.319144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dbd…4f8bbacked Yes57c560.13$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.13425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe654…6987backed No12c547.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes49c509.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.593522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No34c475$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.666023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No51c461$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1123330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd439…4c80backed No30c455$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No52c446.98$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No33c438.35$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.552138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed No32c375.66$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa812…9c13backed No46c350$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ca…e168backed No30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9517…90a4backed No30c325$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa94e…c540backed Yes70c320$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+304.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ad…7a9bbacked Yes70c320$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1b…6fd1backed No30c320$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes76c312$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b7…bd93backed No30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d1…402fbacked No20c290$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes54c271$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6412820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…ff3fbacked Yes70c260$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc14…e34cbacked Yes70c260$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…7123backed No30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb41…a826backed No40c245.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x617a…bad1backed No42c243.37$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a6…efddbacked No26c231.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes70c227.11$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.032147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes65c225$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.752733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes70c217.64$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1417528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb94d…4402backed Yes70c215$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes68c207.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed No35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+94.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…3a54backed Yes70c190$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+74.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa345…55afbacked Yes70c190$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e8…68a7backed Yes70c190$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed No35c189.36$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…5d73backed Yes70c180$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4113…88bebacked No35c169.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.85156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ef…3cbebacked No30c165$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec1…d355backed No35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No35c141.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.166532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc60…a755backed Yes70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e40…7475backed No30c135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c24…baa5backed Yes70c135$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc46…b8a3backed Yes70c130$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7685…ff73backed No30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes75c127.09$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.181030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca46…b2ebbacked No30c125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a78…6777backed Yes70c125$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes75c115$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81d0…2731backed No30c115$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f33…b313backed Yes70c110$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7685…e5d0backed No30c105$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5302…7079backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1580…9394backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.36429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed No49c89.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No15c89.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes72c85.46$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+121%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes60c73.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No23c57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.132466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes74c56.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d7…31bfbacked No31c49.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7846…14cabacked Yes68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaee…44a4backed Yes68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb160…812bbacked Yes70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d0…b336backed Yes70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e0…b1b4backed Yes70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a6…a888backed Yes70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…7815backed Yes70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No50c41.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dac…0dc4backed Yes71c35.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes64c25.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes67c25.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f6…c209backed Yes70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7b…330abacked Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d79…f0d8backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+304.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd13c…e835backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.