Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Pandora Kris (BO3) - Tennisi Stampede Champions Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c80dd22592b63aca39807d6eb12f445576f9eeb3c577095530b33e9b68cb55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Pandora Kris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d8b…65c4backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…75a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…0a8ebacked Pandora Kris | 40c | 1,800$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…8e63backed Pandora Kris | 30c | 1,770$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…f54ebacked Pandora Kris | 30c | 1,750$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…1882backed Pandora Kris | 40c | 1,700$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7376…4f46backed Pandora Kris | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf455…385abacked Pandora Kris | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…626cbacked Pandora Kris | 30c | 1,480$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…9acebacked Pandora Kris | 35c | 1,242$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc025…a11abacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 950$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…0360backed Pandora Kris | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Pandora Kris | 33c | 578.87$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pandora Kris | 35c | 516.4$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Pandora Kris | 36c | 514.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Pandora Kris | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Pandora Kris | 35c | 470.21$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.01 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 300$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…97d6backed Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 291$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fe…98a5backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…c233backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…03febacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…1e74backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…913fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 229.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 208.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 201.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked Pandora Kris | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Pandora Kris | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 187.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 180.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…b680backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 154$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…9ffebacked Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 153$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1b…89d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…7909backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172a…6502backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbade…84b8backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…2e3ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 146.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…09febacked Ilbirs eSports | 64c | 145.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…59bcbacked Pandora Kris | 16c | 138.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc83a…dff6backed Pandora Kris | 42c | 134$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b2…a85cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 113.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa512…175cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 110.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…8fe3backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 102.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…39edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…0c28backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…3f75backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…4144backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…40a5backed Pandora Kris | 19c | 99.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 97.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 96.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8a83backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 94.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…7aa4backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 74.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Pandora Kris | 36c | 69.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pandora Kris | 35c | 68.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Pandora Kris | 42c | 68.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Pandora Kris | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Pandora Kris | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf09…0bbbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 50.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 37.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…0093backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 33.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…eab3backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…5392backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf99…3276backed Pandora Kris | 39c | 30.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pandora Kris | 41c | 29.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pandora Kris | 41c | 28.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…5ea8backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579c…c742backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c59fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…85a8backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1095…2679backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…b6edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…1041backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8940…2786backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.