TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 484 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc5b…5b15backed Nationals47c20,238$9,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,625.9934245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nationals60c13,835$8,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,558.361,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals62c8,542$5,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,205.3469249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Marlins52c8,240$4,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,284.813065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins49c6,641$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.721,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins52c6,172$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.211,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e9…0501backed Nationals46c5,006$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.233046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.981,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Marlins27c4,850$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.9821847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcf…d6a9backed Marlins54c4,123$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.422864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Marlins52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.9998149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…edf8backed Marlins53c3,105$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.654955.1%27 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Marlins53c2,753$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.2138047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins37c2,405$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.531,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins51c2,253$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.981,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Marlins55c1,828$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003959%23 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals46c1,774$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.2238043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals47c1,700$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9011,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Marlins53c1,680$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.430255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Marlins53c1,595$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4611150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Marlins21c1,509$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.6378445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins53c1,448$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.162,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Marlins52c1,366$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.321,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Marlins20c1,340$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.836,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Nationals72c1,280$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3831248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Marlins30c1,052$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.9115033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Marlins1c1,025$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals48c1,000$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.7283248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins38c957.96$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.039,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Marlins7c793.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1927213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins53c754$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.621,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Marlins51c753.95$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.34057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marlins11c695.65$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals47c545.13$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.921,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Marlins3c543.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1593240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Marlins52c524.96$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.351,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x486e…c403backed Marlins54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2651,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals76c499.96$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.683,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals45c496.33$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9851347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals77c461.86$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.042,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Marlins52c461.59$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.029947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Nationals48c415.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.526055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Marlins53c396.23$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21057744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Marlins51c321.83$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.131,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7526…5faabacked Nationals48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438f…28fabacked Marlins53c312.42$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.585756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x896b…0a51backed Marlins53c309.33$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Marlins52c292$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8424253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Nationals47c280$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.635245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Nationals75c276.54$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1331254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals75c263.9$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.094,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nationals79c240$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4847745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x834b…a37ebacked Marlins53c230.19$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1222263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Nationals47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7710041%41 W · 59 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Marlins19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3745732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…7efcbacked Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e40…4efabacked Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…e142backed Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…ebcfbacked Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc805…e5dbbacked Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcff…0e58backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045048%24 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…78e3backed Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac5…3536backed Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045060%30 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0f…f1dcbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1243…18cfbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…502ebacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…8364backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…05fabacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…cd16backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045149%25 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ade…3223backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9788…ad77backed Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec8b…716ebacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045040%20 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x247e…3a07backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb006…289fbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045048%24 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8cd…5c0bbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d07…3068backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0add…142bbacked Marlins52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d6…b3a6backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7f…7b28backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6b…0c40backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd72b…584fbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x093b…e84cbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0970…ec88backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045054%27 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd613…3f24backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x903c…e732backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c61…1d6bbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cca…6c96backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045046%23 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa54f…ed41backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf020…32dfbacked Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045341.5%22 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aab…dcc6backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x345f…7238backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1873…6a97backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed1…d738backed Nationals48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.