Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9d286bf0fa2b4332ee1926c6ed04c6061d82f55d7cb0ac20f6faeb488e8a93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 8,045$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,060.93 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION | 66c | 3,013$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 2,687$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.66 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed PARIVISION | 67c | 2,341$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.38 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 2,124$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.7 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…0536backed PARIVISION | 68c | 1,475$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,342$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.12 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…c8c4backed PARIVISION | 50c | 1,167$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed PARIVISION | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…45c4backed PARIVISION | 51c | 893.28$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed PARIVISION | 62c | 794.04$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.62 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 792.41$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.09 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 700$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed PARIVISION | 68c | 684$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed PARIVISION | 13c | 600$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 545.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.3 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION | 72c | 450$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked PARIVISION | 13c | 450$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked PARIVISION | 52c | 419.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 369.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.18 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked PARIVISION | 76c | 325.93$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.71 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed PARIVISION | 9c | 301.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 237.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.78 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked PARIVISION | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 169.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 163.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed PARIVISION | 75c | 156.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d38ebacked PARIVISION | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc03b…21e2backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 106.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked PARIVISION | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 96.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 89.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 84.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 75.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 74.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked PARIVISION | 75c | 72.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION | 64c | 60.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked PARIVISION | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed PARIVISION | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked PARIVISION | 65c | 58.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked PARIVISION | 75c | 44.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed PARIVISION | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…e70ebacked PARIVISION | 66c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 33.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed PARIVISION | 45c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed PARIVISION | 45c | 30.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked PARIVISION | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…7527backed PARIVISION | 79c | 28.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.6wins | -0.42per pick | 69cpaid | -65%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b5…fc8abacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 24.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.